Polls, polls and more polls.

"Where of where can official poll be," we were asking this at the Clive Doucet for Mayor campaign office after the environmental debate, but there was no response.

It appeared as though the political pollsters were not being commissioned. But, on Sunday morning, poll results surfaced and it put Clive Doucet last in a four horse race for mayor.  More importantly is that it projected Doucet with a 6% favour, which is the exact same number he started with in the last poll.  This was a little shocking as the Ottawa Citizen 24 hour text poll had him several points higher.  Needless to say, we were all a little freaked.

On Monday morning I called the polling company, Holinshed, to request a copy of the report.  I knew that it was a telephone poll and that it asked seven questions, but I wanted to go over it for content and tone.  Sadly, I did not receive that report on Monday.  On Tuesday we had a staff meeting and went over potential ways to deal with this poll (if asked) and moving forward on the campaign.  By then I had already started the poll on my blog and the results were quite different than reported in the media.  Equally, another poll being run showed that Watson was in the lead with Doucet a close second (at the time of writing this, they were tied, but before the debate on Tuesday night, Watson had a marginal lead).  I called the polling company again and gave my information and had Brigid Janssen (our communications director) lend her voice to encourage this report be sent to me/us. It is now Wednesday morning and nothing from Holinshed has come to my in box.  So, how do I feel about the polls?

Holinshed's poll - I have no idea.  It all comes down to the questions and where those phone calls went.  As such, the phone poll alienates those who do not own landlines.  I know someone is thinking "who doesn't have a land line" and simply put, a lot of youth.  There is little point to a land line when a cellular can cost as little as one, but moreover, with a smart phone, young people can stay connected to more than just their telephone.  I was also wondering if the CTV was absolutely and positively the people that commissioned the poll and why they didn't just hold an unofficial one on their website. I am also interested in knowing which phone list they used and where the respondents replied from.  Polling 396 people across 23 wards is an exceedingly low number of reliable respondents to have a proper gauge, but that is just my opinion.

Citizen Text Poll - Great idea, but was run too short.  Could have run for three days and they would have gotten a great temperature of those with cell phones.  However, it alienates those without cellular phones.  Either way, it's not a perfect world.

Online Polls - Most of the voting public in Ottawa has access to a computer.  Now, that said, there is a large number of elderly who do not nor want to have online access.  Yet, the online polls are favouring Watson or Doucet quite heavily with O'Brien and Haydon completely out of the race.  Could this be a sign that the youth vote is going to play a gigantic roll in this election?

One thing I know for certain is that Holinshed has not followed up on my request both as a private citizen and as a member of a campaign team.  If I do get the report, I will go through it and update this posting, but I wouldn't hold my breath.  That poll is clearly yesterday's news.

Before I sign off on this post, I want to give a thumbs up to the people over at Apt. 613 for setting up the debate last night at the NAC Fourth Stage.  I also wanted to acknowledge moderator Sheila Copps for not only keeping the peace, but also for taking it all in stride.  Walter Robinson, Ian Capstick and the other "twitts" whom worked the event also did a fantastic job.  Lastly, much thanking is needed to mayor Larry O'Brien.  At the end calling Clive Doucet a visionary and a leader of this community must have been tough to say, but your support is phenomenal.  When will you concede?

W.