Working as CliveForMayor: I did it my way

Well, last night Ottawa elected a mild mannered politician and said good bye to the sober second thought on council and a mayor who was prone to lashing out irrationally.  My congratulations goes out to Jim Watson and his campaign team for running a long and well won race.  They did so with a level of grace and civility (when it came to Clive Doucet and his campaign) that I had no issues dealing with them online or in person.

I learned a lot over the last several weeks, but my role as the social media “guru” on the campaign team was a lot of fun.  I started off my day usually quite early.  I would collect the news stories that spoke favourably of Clive and looked for little bites of text to use for tweets.  I would also prepare all my tweets on his schedule and start sending out the schedule and news.  When it came to interaction with voters, I was not comfortable (in the beginning) with being the voice online and constantly worried I was misrepresenting Clive.  That changed after a few #AskClive Twitter sessions and getting to know how he thinks and what he believes in.  I also worked on Clive’s Facebook page giving updates, sharing news stories and eventually also talking more on there with voters.

When Nenshi won in Calgary, riding on a wave of momentum that grew through social media and the support there from, I noticed an immediate response toward Clive.  I had already been building the positive buzz and working 13 hour days trying to keep his name out there.  Within 12 hours of the Calgary election, Doucet’s office went from a comfortable working pace to near frantic as supporters came out of the woodwork and before I knew it I was interviewing with Cory O’Kelly of CBC.  That’s when I was certain I could double up Clive’s poll approval with a little more work and being less business-like and more personable through CliveForMayor.

In the end, I started on the campaign when Clive was not polling well.  Within two weeks a poll showed him sitting at 5.6% and I was determined to increase this as much as I could.  On my own Twitter account I decreased my agitating tweets and on CliveForMayor I increase the dialogue with the voters.  On Facebook I did the same on Clive’s page and started thanking people and encouraging them to get out there and vote. On election night, Clive ended at 14.89% and while some at the campaign headquarters last night attributed a lot to me, I would like to think that we did it as a team.  There are a lot of people both inside and outside of the campaign group that pushed Clive’s name online and equally, there are a lot of people who pushed for Clive in the “real world” too.

If you are interested in just how much work was put into the use of Twitter during the campaign, take a look at Professor Josh Greenberg’s latest blog Tweet, Click, Vote: Twitter and the 2010 Ottawa Election.  It’s more shocking to know that 99% of the posts from CliveForMayor in October all came from me.  Yikes!

W.
Voice of CliveForMayor on Twitter

ps. Now the real task is turning what I learned into career opportunities.  I really enjoyed new media and politics combined.  I’ll take suggestions on my Twitter account or emailed. ;)

Bring on the Lions!

Here we are.  Hours before the election and I am in a place that is both familiar and otherworldly.  The familiar is that I am sitting in the ramshackle office in my apartment that has seen a serious cleaning in weeks.  The otherworldly is the closeness to the campaign trail and the political geography of Ottawa’s municipal election; I honestly had little intention early on to be this active.  A few years ago I would have likely explained it as simply a state of liminality.  In less than 20  hours we will all know who the mayor of Ottawa is and soon after that I do not know what the future holds for me.  I started volunteering in the midst of looking for employment and wanted to feel useful only to land into something that has been truly life changing.  Otherwise, this thread is less about me and more about the challenge of electing a candidate some would have called unlikely who has made a push into the top two.

So, why do I want you to vote for Clive Doucet?  I honestly had typed a tome, but I know that tomorrow’s frantic pace most will only glance.  So here is why I voted for Clive during the advanced polling.

1) He has not only an immediate plan to fix transit issues, but one that pulls Ottawa into the 21st century.  It will connect the city, pay for itself and should generate income for the city of Ottawa if other examples prove to stand true for here.  Short of is that a tunnel and LRT 20 years from now will not resolve congestion both downtown and on the 417/174.  It might take buses off the streets, but in 20 years, they’ll be replaced by many more cars.  Give commuters real options to leave the car at home for the 9-5 and take a train to and from downtown efficiently, quickly and use the money from it to expand and/or drive other initiatives.

2) He believes in community connectedness.  I moved here 14 years ago after living in the village of Wellington Ontario (1200 people).  I noticed right away that getting to know my neighbours was not common and I never really had any place nearby to go and meet with them.  A farmer’s market nearby would be an excellent start!

3) He does not like that local farmers need to ship their food to major food terminals in Montreal and Toronto before the goods are purchased and shipped back to Ottawa’s supermarkets.  As such, he wants to build a food terminal here.  This will help bring down cost overheads, provide Ottawa with fresher ingredients and can help the restaurant industry flourish.

4) His City that Knows Value plank is not only honest about spending in Ottawa, but achievable.  No 0 means 0 hear boondoggle.  Combined with his transit plan costing a fraction of the tunnel (savings) with his idea of the City of Ottawa act that united larger municipalities to petition for a reasonable share of provincial taxes (more savings), potential to growth increases with taxes plateauing.  However, he also wants the city to live within its means and to never spend over the cost of living whenever possible.  That’s money from LRT, money from province and then work tax rates to cost of living? I can get behind that despite I am a little more socialist on tax spending that Clive is.

5) He wants to start changing how Ottawa lives in social housing space.  Units suited for families and family size, geared to the right income and not just a Band-Aid for a sucking chest wound.  How many social housing projects can go into the cost of a tunnel under downtown that will not fix our city congestion?

That is it.  There are more planks to Clive’s campaign that you can look at here, but these are the main ones for me as a voter.  These are the ones I and my wife care about most and that we have kicked around for months.

So, tomorrow, polls open at 10am and close at 8pm.  Find your local polling station here.  Also, if you are not sure if you are registered that does not matter.  If you reside in Ottawa, you will need ID, but check here for the details as well.

Hopefully tomorrow you choose the same mayor I did and on Tuesday we all wake up in a new era for the City of Ottawa.  Oh, you are likely wondering about the title of the blog.  Here’s the reference.  Pardon my poor video quality, I forgot to flip my iPhone to its side to take it.

W.

Social Media on the Mayoral Campaign

I want to take a moment to address some questions I have been asked over the past couple of days. These questions are about polling, social media and Clive’s chances to win this next election.  However, before we begin, a clip from the CBC News at 6 on Social Media in the mayoral race.  This is a shameless plug and I admit to it. The only thing I am not a fan of with this clip is that the preview image being my face.  Yikes! 

Social Media from Calgary to Ottawa in the race for mayor–CBC News Ottawa, Oct 19 2010

I want to start by saying that Naheed Nenshi’s win in Calgary and the connection to social media being used for the mayoral campaigns here in Ottawa is a little different.  The top three contenders (according to the latest poll) all use some form of social media.  Some of them are using more than others, while others may be using their forms better.  While Clive Doucet’s push for mayor utilizes a wide variety of mediums it does so with a limited budget. However, this does not diminish either the Calgary or the Ottawa example.  Both cities have similar issues and similar political leanings with likeminded underdogs; one is now mayor-elect, the other will hopefully have the same distinction on Monday.

How has Social Media changed the race in Ottawa?

Since joining the Clive Doucet campaign it has been my singular goal to keep the online voting public informed on Clive’s day-to-day schedule while linking news stories about him. I have noticed a turn in a number of people from undecided and even doubters to supporters.  Do I take credit for it?  No.  Clive did all the work, I was simply (likely) sitting in my office at home at the right time to share the story.

I have noticed that when I cover a debate or a press release, retweets (people sharing other people’s tweets) about Clive increase substantially.  This happens a lot more often with the Doucet campaign than it appears to happen with other campaigns.  Albeit, I am also convinced that the other campaigns could benefit from a dedicated staff member working specifically on social media with the candidate lending their voice from time to time. Is it too little too late for another campaign to ramp up their social media exposure?  Yes.  Not because it would not help their campaign in some form, but rather it would come off a little desperate.  Fortunately, the Clive Doucet social media presence has been there for some time now and has been plugging away for weeks.

What about the polls?

It is well known I was very critical about one poll in specific and how it was done was well as the intentions of said poll.  However, I have grown to adopt the campaign line that we only care about the election poll results.  Yes, polls are important in understanding where the momentum is, but they are not an end all or be all of elections.  Online polls (some easily manipulated, others not) have put Clive in the running for mayor just as much as Watson or O’Brien.  We simply have to wait and see. 

Do you hate conventional media?

This one came in when I was writing this blog and I suppose it has to do with a recent posting on the Ottawa Citizen website.  The short of it is no.  I do not hate conventional media.  In fact, I often admire the work reporters do.  Go back six or so years and I too wanted to work in journalism, but had a change of heart.  I am critical not for the sake of being shrill or whiney, but because I do not believe my candidate has been equally represented.  Thus far two large articles on vision and transit both skipped out on my candidate for one publication.  Saying that someone has a fair chance may be accurate, but there is not fair exposure.

That said, there are other publications and outlets (radio and television) that have given Clive Doucet a fair chance to be heard and seen.  The number comment we often hear from undecided voters is simply that: “I have no idea what your message or platform is.”  It is not easy explaining why they have no idea without sounding negative, so we turn to the social media savvy people to do it even though the reach may be limited compared to over 100,000 readers per day of other mediums.  But no, I do not hate conventional media.  They serve a purpose, they work to said purpose and they do so quite well.  I could easily sit down and have a glass of scotch (I do not drink beer) with any of the members of the media even if I disagree with them.

Will Clive Doucet win come Monday October 25th?

Much like the final cost of the proposed tunnel downtown, the future is difficult to determine.  I do believe that Clive has a sincere shot at winning based off of the online buzz I am witnessing.  Shockingly, I have been emailed, messaged and even stopped on the street with people saying they’re going to support Clive.  Just yesterday, at Carleton University, a young woman shook my hand and said hello simply because I follow her on Twitter (or at least I think that’s what she said … busy hallways are not conducive for chit-chat).  People appear to be picking up the momentum for Clive and running with it.  So, yes, I do believe Clive Doucet, with momentum on his side, has a fair shot at taking the polls on Monday. 

W.

Ottawa Citizen misses on Transit

From day one this mayoral campaign, the Ottawa Citizen has made it clear that they will only “focus on who they considered contenders for mayor in Jim Watson and Larry O’Brien.”  They wanted to do very little to appeal to alternative frames of mind away from the O’Watson campaigns and encourage the Jim and Larry show; well, that might have worked to an extent, but did they ever fire a missed shot on transit issues in Ottawa.

(You might ask yourself why I am saying O’Watson a lot.  Most of what Jim Watson is proposing is “stay the course” mentality.  He has the same transit plan as Larry O’Brien with absolutely no deviation.  None.)

Jennifer Green released a “news” piece on October 17th titled Transit tops voters issues, that boasts that transit issues needed to be found and then gushed over this proposed transit tunnel idea for downtown. My issue is with the poll finding anything about transit is only slightly insulting to the general public.  Of course transit is the number one issue; we are not far from the second year anniversary of a long and bitter transit strike – and the Amalgamated Transit Union still does not have a contract in hand.

So why am I incensed this time? 

That is what O’Watson and the editors of the Ottawa Citizen simply do not want people to see and/or comprehend.  This simple image put together by the Clive Doucet team explains how Light Rail Transit goes from vision to putting butts in seats within four years.  The cost of this will be less than 1/3 of the total cost of the mistake that is the O’Watson plan. 

Now, O’Watson, Haydon and even some public will say “but a tunnel downtown will help congestion!”  I do not buy it.  The tunnel downtown will take pressure off of Slater and Albert streets during rush hour, but very little else will change in the core.  The City of Ottawa, under the other three former mayors, will not give affordable, cost effective and reliable transit to their citizens until 2031 at the very earliest.  What we require in Ottawa is a viable transit option now.  We need something that can connect the major suburbs and offer solutions to driving downtown 365 days out of the year.  That is the only way to reduce congestion within the core of our city.

There will likely be someone who says “but if we cancel the tunnel plan now, the tax payer is on the hook for millions in penalties!”  No, the City of Ottawa is not on the hook for anything.  There is nothing done other than some talking and a couple of surveys to see if it is possible or not.  Even the findings from the geological surveys are not made public.  The only thing that we know for certain about this tunnel is that O’Watson thinks it is a good idea to spend billions for a long shot when we are all old and grey rather than millions on a sure bet now.

The Ottawa Citizen missed on this one.  Painting the election about transit and missing the only real contender and patron of transit solutions in the picture.  Sure, I am bias, but if anyone came to me with a transit plan that saw me sitting in a train across the city in four years with a young child of my own rather than having my adult child join me for the first ride many years from now, I would sign on with their campaign too.

W.

Edit: Borrowed this graphic from @alexlaq on Twitter:

Watson Wrong on the Numbers

I did promise I would not post about Lansdowne Park again, but unfortunately this post is inspired from an email I received on the topic. In said email it was pointed out that the City of Ottawa can walk away from the redevelopment of Lansdowne Park if (and likely when) if the heritage approvals from Ontario Heritage Trust are not granted.  The city can then terminate the arrangement to the tune of $8.14-million to cover Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group’s costs. The question remains to the Siemens lawsuit of $110-million thanks to Larry O’Brien?  If you are not sure, please take the time to read the rest of the information lifted from the websites of both Mr. Watson and Mr. Doucet.

The following information has been taken from Jim Watson’s website and is misleading to the public at best about Lansdowne Park redevelopment.

~ The current council and mayor have approved the plan, and Jim Watson has indicated he will not risk another lawsuit and tear up the agreement. (You may recall the current council tore up the light rail agreement at a cost of $110 million). Jim has indicated that if he is elected mayor it will be his duty to ensure the plan is implemented sensibly and that all relevant concerns for the surrounding community and taxpayers as a whole are dealt with.  Tearing up the agreement and starting the process all over again would cost the taxpayers millions of dollars and delay rejuvenating Lansdowne by another four years. The process was not perfect, but we need to move forward with the plan in a thoughtful fashion. There are some exciting aspects to the redevelopment of Lansdowne that will help revitalize this 40 acre site. ~

Since this is a debate about Lansdowne Park then obviously the only other candidate to talk about it is Clive Doucet.  From Clive’s own website comes the following information:

~ What people need to know, and are not being told, is that it’s not too late for the City to choose a different path for one of Ottawa’s most important and cherished public spaces.  

Lansdowne needs to be revitalized – but not at any cost. 

Several exit ramps out of this mess are still available.

While the Council vote on June 28^th has been described as giving final approval to the Lansdowne Partnership Plan (LPP), a number of significant steps need to be completed before the partnership scheme is finalized. 

The first category of ramps can be taken at no cost to the City.

Under the LPP Project Framework Agreement, the City has the right not to proceed if prior to closing certain requirements are not met, including:

·   environmental and legal due diligence matters;

·   receipt of third party approvals (heritage approvals are a serious and major stumbling block);

·   satisfaction that the retail component contains “Distinctive Uses”;

·   acceptance of the final financial statement respecting the project and the “waterfall”.

The City Council also has the right to terminate the LPP agreement “for convenience” prior to Stage 3 which is scheduled to commence sometime in March 2011.

Should the City exercise this right, it would be required to pay various costs incurred by OSEG to that point.  According to the LPP, total “Stage 1 and 2” costs to OSEG are $8.14M. 

This means that the next duly elected City Council can terminate the LPP for just over $8M and can proceed with a new process that is open, competitive and transparent. 

The $8M cost can be recovered through a more modest go forward plan for Lansdowne that can be achieved in the next term of Council. ~

W.

The Politics of Negativity

I have never been one to sit back and take it on the chin.  A personal attack, regardless of the medium, has always been one of those things that just irks me.  Generally speaking, people lash out irrationally and I am baffled by it.  However, I have grown a thicker skin in recent weeks.

Over this campaign I have noticed that when the Ottawa Sun or Ottawa Citizen post an article online people respond with some awfully spiteful comments about the candidates.  I have also noticed that whenever Clive Doucet encounters some of these remarks, he simply shrugs them off and continues forward.  He realizes that there are people who simply do not understand him or that people may not “like him”.  I personally do not understand the concept of disliking someone without actually knowing them, but I can dislike their policies.  Example: I do not know Larry O’Brien, but I dislike his policies.  Equally, I do not dislike Jim Watson now that I have met him, but I do not like a lot of his platform.  I am sure his team feels the same way about me as well.  All is fair in politics.

There are five common remarks about Clive Doucet and his bid to become mayor that I find problematic.  The first is that Clive is dead last, in the single digits, as of the only poll to come out in weeks.  Yes, he was according to that poll, but that poll was clearly commissioned by an interest group (I’m looking at you Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group) that would stand to benefit from it.  It was not done scientifically let alone ethically.  If you have yet to read about it, please check my post on the Holinshed Poll here. 

We know that this poll is likely inaccurate because the campaign is all over the internet like a rabid spider monkey and the on-ground canvasing is turning up positive results.  Is he behind?  Likely, but he is also likely gaining and gaining fast.  O’Brien has basically tanked and that has become clear from attack ads and push-polling techniques.  Now with that in mind, people are saying they’re less likely to vote for Watson (seeing through his platform as nothing less than undermining democracy and similar to O’Brien’s).  More interesting, people are saying they will vote for Doucet now because it is clear a vote for Doucet is not a vote for O’Brien.  Not even remotely close.  Four years ago we Ottawans made a huge error in splitting the vote.  With 15% of the vote going to Chiarelli, O’Brien (47%) was able to beat Alex Munter (36%).  A lot of that election had to do with the conservative nature of Ottawa. We were clearly not in favour of electing an inexperienced businessman, but also did not approve of Munter (point of fact: I voted for Munter.  He was the right choice).  This election, people can be less afraid of electing in O’Brien and draw a battle-line between Watson and Doucet to take this election to the end.

What about these comments and the politics of negativity?

The remark I see an awful lot of is that Clive Doucet is a “crybaby”.  To show any sort of emotion other than rage for men in western society is somehow shameful.  It is better to come off as some sort of idiot who cannot contain their anger than it is to wipe a tear after a hard fought battle lost.  Especially when that battle was lost specifically because the city was more than willing to bend to the will of the money rather than that of the people.

How about Clive Doucet is a Glebe-centric candidate?  This links to the previous “crybaby” remark because the one issue everyone still remembers in the sole-sourcing redevelopment of Lansdowne Park.  I will not get into it, but you can read another one of my posts here on the matter.  However, there is no way Clive Doucet is focused on one neighbourhood.  His transit plan links the city suburbs together to the hub as a means to release pressure on the 417 and through the core.  He wants to build a food terminal so that our farmers in rural Ottawa can sell their goods at competitive rates here in Ottawa, not ship them to Toronto and Montreal first.  He wants to stimulate the arts and culture communities, increase tourism and see the city benefit from the economic payoff there of; this includes all communities!  People who lean on the remark that Clive Doucet is Glebe-centric are simply unaware of his campaign platform. Neither Watson or O’Brien have any aim to help suburban Ottawa let alone rural Ottawa.  Both want a tunnel under downtown and that does not fix anything but possibly downtown issues.  O’Brien wants a ring road which goes around Ottawa, but again, does not help the suburbs.

“Clive Doucet will spend, spend, spend and raise taxes for it!”  Really?  On the fiscal part of the platform he refuses to peg a number on taxes and wants to keep it to inflationary rates.  Of all the campaigns, Clive Doucet has promised the most frugal tax initiative of them all.  The spend, spend, spend theory is sound, but the money is not coming from the wallet of the citizen.  There is a lot of money to be spent around the city without the tunnel and LRT (as proven by 13,600+ riders a day on the O-Train) can and will make money for the city.  This theory and fear of spending in Ottawa sincerely has to stop.  The City of Ottawa has a dismal spending record over the last decade and Clive Doucet is insisting on a restructuring of how business is run.  He is not pitching blowing open the coffers and let the city go further into debt, but rather to pull it out of debt by its own accord through stimulation.  Overall, Watson is looking at 2.5% ceiling on taxes and O’Brien gave Ottawa a 0 means 14% increase over four years.  Both of them want to invest in a project to nowhere and will cost tax payers money to do and maintain.

Overall, my favourite comment I read time and time again is how Clive Doucet “helped his son get the job at OC Transpo”.  Well, first off, Julian Doucet is not employed by OC Transpo per se.  He won a double blind competition to be the voice that calls out the buses stops so that OC Transpo drivers were not required to use the already installed microphone on their bus.  It is, of course, no shock I thought we wasted money on the system when a driver can do it, but then we get into the whole debate about understanding each driver as well as bilingual service.  In the long run I abandoned the argument and accepted that Julian Doucet’s voice work was just a better option.  Did Clive Doucet get his son the job?  No.  Not convinced?

Doucet's Rant from Myke on Vimeo.

Overall, the politics of negativity in Ottawa is baffling. This is not a matter of xenophobia, but rather a simple case of ignorance.  Some people are not afraid of Clive Doucet, they simply have not taken the time to be informed.  It is, however, unfortunate that some of these people are lashing out irrationally on the Ottawa Sun and Ottawa Citizen websites with little to no moderation for their remarks.

W.

Four Problems with Lansdowne Park

I have grown used to the Ottawa Sun playing to their conservative Ottawa readership.  Very little in the publication, aside from the time-to-time poor choice of Sunshine Girl, moves or offends me.  However, twice in less than seven days I have found myself rolling my eyes at an editorial remark.  This time the little piece titled Time to park hysteria caught my attention.  Not because it was well crafted or because it was factual (neither of these apply), but because it happens to the the media's favourite flag to wave about Doucet's campaign.

Over the Thanksgiving Weekend, Clive Doucet took part in a number of activities.  Since I wrote up the itinerary for the press, I should know that they could literally pick and choose what events they wanted to attend.  This past weekend we invited said press to visit the Scone Witch, Cornucopia in Westboro, an open house at the campaign headquarters (the Ottawa Citizen had a photographer on hand) … and that was just Saturday.  Sunday was the Sylvia Holden Park event and 10/10/10 Global Workshop with Monday seeing Clive serve up Thanksgiving dinner to residents at Shepherds of Good Hope and then again at The Ottawa Mission (notice the photo of Watson serving meals and only a caption mention of Doucet in the papers?).  Of all of those events the Ottawa Sun decided to attend and write about was the one at Sylvia Holden Park. 

I suppose the media wants to continue to paint Clive as a Glebe-centrist candidate and ignore that he has been campaigning successfully from rural to suburban and into urban Ottawa for a while now.  The writers and editors most think to themselves "instead of real news, let's focus on Lansdowne Park as his main issue instead of transit and how the traffic east to west is crippling from 5:30am to 10:00am and again from 2:30pm to 7:00pm."  Come to think of it, the Ottawa Sun is not located near the 417 and would not immediately benefit from a Light Rail Transit plan (though Hunt Club is a parking lot from the airport to their offices during rush hour as well), so it stands to reason why they frankly do not care.  What about ignoring that Clive has a unique idea with the Ottawa Valley supplying the city of Ottawa with the majority of its food source?  Right now a farmer in the valley is packing their produce to be shipped to either Toronto or Montreal and then sent off across the continent (or beyond).  Some of it comes back to Ottawa, but has to travel to other cities first because they are set up as food hubs.  Now what about the "foodies" of Ottawa?  The last time you went out to a local restaurant that claimed to be local, unless that restaurateur has an exclusive deal with a farmer, likely their food came the same way our groceries do.  So sure, let’s go back to the chestnut that is Lansdowne Park and talk about it.



Ah, Lansdowne.  You glorious paved parking lot.  That is how Charlie Taylor, another candidate for mayor, likes to refer to as, but it is more than that.  There are only a couple slips of green space on the park property around the parameter and the sports field itself.  The parameter is for the common plebe, the sports field is off limits unless you pay for it.  Not much of a park.

So where is that spot Clive is “upset” about now?  Top right hand of the image above.  Can you see it?  It’s a half hectare at the corner off of Bank St. and Holmwood Ave. Why is Clive actually concerned?  The city lawyers are saying that this site was never deemed an "official park" despite the commemoration of it in the name of Sylvia Holden (champion for sport and community in Ottawa decades back).  Yet, if Lansdowne Park is for sale, then this park will also be for sale under the same agreement.  That is it.  It sets a precedence in Ottawa to discard parks, deemed so or otherwise, and sell the land to be developed not in the interest in the community which the park serves, but whoever buys it.  But why did the editorial staff take the time to write about this?  It is a big issue, but it is not the biggest issue of the day or the campaign.  At least not to the majority of Ottawans; I am bias because I am a bus rider and transit is my number one issue, but if anything, that seems to be the biggest issue.  The tunnel through downtown is such a bad idea and anyone who has watched a moment of Discovery Channel can tell you digging a tunnel through the city is precarious at best.  Worst of all?  The other three former mayors all want the tunnel.  We're talking transit presenting a "possible" fix decades from now, not immediately.

So, what is my beef with the Ottawa Sun this time?  Frankly, they are just getting lazy with this one.  Sure, Clive is a bit emotional over Lansdowne and Sylvia Holden parks.  This was the only fight in Capital Ward he lost in years.  It was a big one too.  It was not a ward issue, it is a city issue and he knows it.  The media just loves to pick on it.  However, the issue is that while the Ottawa Sun speculates that we will see more green space from the redevelopment, there is absolutely not guarantees.

Problem 1: A major sports venue in downtown Ottawa has failed to maintain a following not once, but twice.  My beloved Ottawa Senators, housed out in Kanata, have managed to rebound, but still do not sell out the majority of their games. Why?  If a team is not doing well, Ottawa does not support them. There is absolutely no guarantee that the conservative sport enjoying Ottawa resident will actually go out most of the time to see a team at a new Lansdowne facility.

Problem 2: Traffic will become a problem.  Google Lansdowne Park, search the images and as far back as 1950 you can find images of cars jammed into the parking spots and lining the streets for a football game.  When people do come out to watch the sporting events, there will not be enough parking and there is no way to ferry the traffic away from the core on two lanes going either way. Bank St and the parkway will become nothing more than a parking lot.

Problem 3: Building any major shopping locations on the site threatens the Glebe community as is.  Businesses in the Glebe thrive because the closest mall competition is Billings Bridge in the south and Rideau Centre in the north.  Both offer different atmospheres and less boutique experiences.  Will a new shopping destination in their own neighbourhood do the same?  Look at Sparks St. and how it literally died since the Rideau Centre opened.

Problem 4: The final one is the closed door sale of Lansdowne Park.  The whole block is up for sale and for the first time in Ottawa’s long history, we are willing to sell of a place that historically belongs to us.  The Central Canadian Exhibition is why the park came to us in the first place, but that intention died this past fall with SuperEx taking it's exit.  We abandoned it for years when football waned and nearly tore down the Aberdeen Pavilion (site of the first ever Stanley Cup challenge!).  Half of the south sides stand came down and the rest will need to as well.  Basically, Lansdowne Park and Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group, is in shambles.  There's a quick buck to be made, but there are other examples of poor development in Ottawa too.  Confederation Square only took several decades to get right ... Why not Lansdowne too, right? (Another blog post maybe... or comment/email me.)

So, Clive is upset and “hysterical” because it is nothing more than shady politics that have saw us lose the greatest treasure this city owns.  Sure, a major sports field downtown would be nice, but it should be public and open to use as well.  Right now it sits empty most of the time and we have had kicks at the CFL can twice and look at the result.  If the CFL is to return it is unfortunate to think it may leave again in a few years because ticket sales are just not there or because people cannot make it to games without going two hours in advance to manage the traffic.  Instead, restoring Lansdowne Park back to its original form as a public-private space makes sense.  I personally believe a committee should be named to maintain the park, but also to run the day-to-day affairs.  There is no reason for us to not turn a profit off it it with sports fields for high school through to university competition, but instead of a concrete monster, do it in a tasteful “throw back” manner to a bygone era.

W.

Ottawa Media's Hanging Chad Issue

On September 29th, I published my Letter to the Local Editors and I expected it to go largely ignored ... it did.  If there is one thing I have learned about the Ottawa media, they do not take well to being scolded for doing wrong. They have been a polarizing factor in this election and have done so by backing one or the other of the two "leading" candidates in Jim Watson of Larry O'Brien.  Yet, neither of them is an ideal candidate for the mayor's chain.  One of them has done nothing but disregarded the Official City Plan, raise taxes and run the city as a failing business.  The other has borrow liberally from his opponents, has no real direction and will simply lead the Ottawa to the best of his past ability.

Just four days ago I published my post on how Holinshed's poll was not conducted in a scientific or ethical manner.  That poll, for the past seven days, has been the thermometer by which we are measuring the political temperature, but at the same time the poll reads as though a Jim Watson contributor or his campaign itself commissioned the poll.  Before Watson fans get the pitchforks and torches, please note that Holinshed's own mission statement is to have "win elections" through polling.  Good for business; bad for the city of Ottawa with 20 mayoral candidates.  That poll itself, meanwhile, continues to be a lightning rod for "official" reading of how this election might go despite what the online community is saying or showing themselves.

Almost all of the mainstream media networks have all but written off everyone other than Jim Watson and Larry O'Brien.  In fact, the Ottawa Sun published an editorial stating that Clive Doucet and Andy Haydon should drop out of the race.  To their credit, they cited that it was their belief based on their editorial board interview with both Doucet and Haydon, but it is hard to believe with the poll being released that very week of said interviews.  Soon after that near damning editorial came out, the Sun decided they should release a poll asking online readers if Doucet and Haydon should drop out only to be humiliated when the readers decidedly said no, they should stay!  The Ottawa Citizen has not been quiet on their support either.  Randall Denley spouts his vehemence for other candidates other than Watson and O'Brien and even now, Denley who loaded a question on /A\ Morning Ottawa's debate for O'Brien to cherry pick has started to turncoat to Watson.


Between the Ottawa Citizen putting a journalist on TVO's Agenda talking about the potential boondoggle of a tunnel as the only option for Ottawa with only two choices of mayor and the failed poll used to convince Ottawa Sun readers to agree with the misguided editorial board, we are left with little substance in Ottawa's reporting.  Sure, we occasionally see the other candidates.  Mike Maquire gets a little air time with his ideas of privatization of city services; Charlie Taylor talks about his love of people should live, work and play in the same community (not likely to happen); to the gong show of Jane Scharf storming stages, leaving stages, filing human rights commission complaints.  They make for great sound bites over the same old mayor (O'Brien) with better hair (Watson), but I am at a loss.  It has become so bad that social media is starting to lash back at contemporary media for being one sided; they simply want to anoint Watson as mayor and be done with it.  But why?

I have talked with Jim Watson and members of his team on the campaign trail.  I have no opinion about the man personally and his team seem to genuinely like what they are doing.  They're even friendly enough to toss jokes with me now and again in the spirit of good humour and competition.  Maybe it is because they know they have a candidate that is getting the hanging chad of the Ottawa mayoral election?  Is the media in Ottawa truly Fox News for the north? 

So, I guess I'll open a new poll.  I want to see if readers and Tweeps are seeing what I am seeing.  Is the mainstream media of Ottawa going to determine who the next mayor of Ottawa is?  I hope not, but with 13 long days left in this campaign it remains to be seen.  If the only polls are any indication, they show the two horse race is between Doucet and Watson.  Could you imagine?  The mainstream media finally wake up and notice that they were wrong about a horse and started hunting down stories about Doucet and talking about his plans with a modicum of neutrality?

This would be a whole new race... and Doucet has been quietly pacing himself around the bend to hit the back stretch.  One can hope.  Come October 25th, we should simply ignore everything in the media and refresh ourselves with the facts of the campaigns.  The fact remains that we have only two real options; Doucet or Watson.

Photo below taken on the 417, Thanksgiving Monday: are you so sure Ottawa does not need LRT now?  This is an average day in Ottawa... Rush hour is a parking lot.

W.

Thanksgiving and Municipal Turkeys

My brine is ready.  The 5 gallon bucket in which the turkey will rest, soaking in a lavish bath of salt, sugar, all-spice, ginger and pepper is prepped and ready too.  Sometime around midnight tonight I will immerse the festive foul -- once reserved for the rich whereas the goose was the meal for the poor -- into the mixture to soak for 16 hours on our balcony.  Yet, while I get ready for my bi-weekly night out with friends, away from the campaigning, I am reflective on things I am thankful for this weekend.

I am thankful for the chance to become involved in local politics, but so much so that it occupies most waking hours of my day (8-13 hours per day, every day usually).  While there may only be 15 days away from the end of the road on this campaign, I do believe my efforts have helped pick up momentum for one candidate; Clive Doucet.  I am also thankful that I was welcomed with open arms into that campaign office and while I am sometimes outspoken, I am infrequently chastised for it.

This week has been the most trying and frustrating week I have experienced on the campaign trail.  From questionable polls that came out of nowhere, reporting thereof, to pernicious editorials aimed to steer the public on who is and is not a candidate, it truly has been difficult to remain calm. Of all that, I am thankful for people who tapped me on the shoulder and gave me sage advice, to chin up and keep trudging forward for what I believe in.  If I let everything get to me about what other people say about my candidate, my objectives might be influenced and my ability to do good on his behalf could be rendered inconsequential.

It sounds as though I am patting myself on the back a little, something I have tried to avoid for the last few weeks.  I am simply happy to see that the week has come to a close.  There has been sparks in this campaign that have ignited for better and for worse.  There have been ups and downs, but the social media community of Ottawa's voting public (largely on Twitter's #ottvote hashtag) have been outspoken and largely supportive.  For that I am absolutely thankful.

Above all and as cheesy as it can be, I am most thankful for my wife who has told me to chase this and do good for my candidate.  I have met people from other campaigns and while they seem nice, I am truly having fun despite the pressure and stress.  I am also very thankful for the supportive campaign staff and am hopeful in our success over the next 15 days; we can make a difference in this city.

W.

Holinshed's Mayoral Poll; How it was screwed up

Let me preface this post by saying that I just finished reading the Ottawa Sun's editorial suggesting Clive Doucet should pull out of the mayoral race. The editorial even went so far as taking a moment out of context and quoting his initial reaction to the Holinshed poll that came out Monday morning while he was doing a Ottawa Sun editorial board interview. What a terrible move on the Ottawa Sun's part.  Fortunately for my readers, I have a treat.  Read this article and then we'll see some lovely images on the Holinshed Poll with some thoughts.

I have called the polling company in question three times this week and have been backed up with phone calls from others to request a report on said poll; they refused to give us anything or flat out ignore the requests.  I emailed them two nights ago and asked for a methodology, who requested the poll, who supplied a calling list, what time of day were these calls done at and in which wards were they polling from.  All of these need to be considered when doing a sample poll.  Consider that Ottawa has 23 wards.  On average it would be 17.3 people per ward making up that poll.  That doesn't sound right.  Could you imagine if one ward tipped the average while others had one or two respondents?  I am convinced that is one of the errors, but sadly I do not have the proof.

When Clive Doucet took the microphone on CBC Radio on Tuesday this week, he called into question the poll.  Host Kathleen Petty reigned Doucet in, but the following day she had a segment on polling.  I will get to that one a little later.  However, even CFRA, the ones believed to have requested said poll, also had something to say about it during The Lunch Bunch on Wednesday.  Michael Harris called into question both the sample size and the margin of error.  He also speculated that, "the only person who would benefit showing you dead in the water is Jim Watson."  I am not big on conspiracy theories, but I doubt it was Watson himself.  Could it be someone from his campaign or in his interest perhaps?  Could be.  I doubt we'll know before October 25th.

What about Kathleen Petty's spot on polling?  October 6, 2010 Petty began her 8 minute segment on polling with Doucet calling for more and creditable polls.  Nik Nanos of Nanos Research spoke in the segment to speak on the matter and he immediately said there needs to be more than one pollster to give perspective and let voters focus on issues.  Nanos and Petty also emphasized that polls can polarize issues or candidates and tell people how to vote. One of the most curious things Nanos brought up was the screening process of the respondents. It is important to screen people who were likely to vote and then there needs to be a way to counter the fluctuation and opinion.  Overall, polling is difficult and can cost money, but we have seen three online polls with telling information.

First, the Debate 2.0 Poll that was run during the live televised debate.  It showed Clive Doucet in a commanding lead with 58% of the vote.  Now, my poll is a little bias and I recognize that, but it too has a lead for Doucet with Watson trailing; Haydon and O'Brien are out.  Finally there's the Twtpoll that shows Doucet in a slight lead, Watson trailing and again Haydon and O'Brien are out.  Sure, online polling can be difficult to call accurate, but all three of the online poll flies in the face of the Holinshed poll.  If that doesn't convince someone that O'Brien's pretty much out, his own campaign went on the attack following Debate 2.0 and has been swinging for the fencing and cranking them foul.

So what about the Holinshed poll?  The company did not send me a copy of the report nor did they answer my email on understanding the poll.  However, I did receive a copy of said report with the caveat that my source neither knew who requested the poll nor it's methodology.  We simply have the questions asked and the numbers.

 

That's the first question.  Can you imagine the script if this was the first question asked? "Hi, we're polling about the mayoral race.... (insert that question)".  Nik Nanos said you want to start off by screening and in the report there is no indication of this being done.  Not even on the follow up questions.  Let's consider the question itself though. I am not sure I agree with including support and leaning in the same category.  Someone who is leaning toward a candidate can be won over by another.  They are, for all intents and purposes, undecided.

Generally speaking? Generalizations are also asking people to waiver.  However, the tone of the question is set with "is it time to elect someone as Mayor?"  I am going to assume the calling script had the word 'else' in there, but regardless, the question immediately leads those who are "leaning" to also say it's time for a new mayor.

 The next three questions already swing in Watson's favour.  The wording doesn't hurt listing Watson at the end (albeit, they did it alphabetically, however omitting the names of the candidates would likely be best since they did so for the first question).

The final question was one on the issues, but actually made me laugh.  Third on the list is accountability and honesty, but this poll clearly lacked both.

W.

Edit: Check this cover story on Geo Vote and how Holinshed uses it to ensure their clients get the best results possible: http://www.holinshed.com/TheBusinessPost.aspx#top
Edit: The Ottawa Sun is now trying to host a poll of its own to see if Doucet and Haydon should drop out of the race or not!  Go there, vote and have your opinion weighed.  Media should never be allowed to dictate who is and is not a candidate, let alone do so based off of a poorly conducted poll specifically designed to engineer a favourite candidate... and then try to make it look somehow legit with their own little poll to back their own Op/Ed piece up!

Polls, polls and more polls.

"Where of where can official poll be," we were asking this at the Clive Doucet for Mayor campaign office after the environmental debate, but there was no response.

It appeared as though the political pollsters were not being commissioned. But, on Sunday morning, poll results surfaced and it put Clive Doucet last in a four horse race for mayor.  More importantly is that it projected Doucet with a 6% favour, which is the exact same number he started with in the last poll.  This was a little shocking as the Ottawa Citizen 24 hour text poll had him several points higher.  Needless to say, we were all a little freaked.

On Monday morning I called the polling company, Holinshed, to request a copy of the report.  I knew that it was a telephone poll and that it asked seven questions, but I wanted to go over it for content and tone.  Sadly, I did not receive that report on Monday.  On Tuesday we had a staff meeting and went over potential ways to deal with this poll (if asked) and moving forward on the campaign.  By then I had already started the poll on my blog and the results were quite different than reported in the media.  Equally, another poll being run showed that Watson was in the lead with Doucet a close second (at the time of writing this, they were tied, but before the debate on Tuesday night, Watson had a marginal lead).  I called the polling company again and gave my information and had Brigid Janssen (our communications director) lend her voice to encourage this report be sent to me/us. It is now Wednesday morning and nothing from Holinshed has come to my in box.  So, how do I feel about the polls?

Holinshed's poll - I have no idea.  It all comes down to the questions and where those phone calls went.  As such, the phone poll alienates those who do not own landlines.  I know someone is thinking "who doesn't have a land line" and simply put, a lot of youth.  There is little point to a land line when a cellular can cost as little as one, but moreover, with a smart phone, young people can stay connected to more than just their telephone.  I was also wondering if the CTV was absolutely and positively the people that commissioned the poll and why they didn't just hold an unofficial one on their website. I am also interested in knowing which phone list they used and where the respondents replied from.  Polling 396 people across 23 wards is an exceedingly low number of reliable respondents to have a proper gauge, but that is just my opinion.

Citizen Text Poll - Great idea, but was run too short.  Could have run for three days and they would have gotten a great temperature of those with cell phones.  However, it alienates those without cellular phones.  Either way, it's not a perfect world.

Online Polls - Most of the voting public in Ottawa has access to a computer.  Now, that said, there is a large number of elderly who do not nor want to have online access.  Yet, the online polls are favouring Watson or Doucet quite heavily with O'Brien and Haydon completely out of the race.  Could this be a sign that the youth vote is going to play a gigantic roll in this election?

One thing I know for certain is that Holinshed has not followed up on my request both as a private citizen and as a member of a campaign team.  If I do get the report, I will go through it and update this posting, but I wouldn't hold my breath.  That poll is clearly yesterday's news.

Before I sign off on this post, I want to give a thumbs up to the people over at Apt. 613 for setting up the debate last night at the NAC Fourth Stage.  I also wanted to acknowledge moderator Sheila Copps for not only keeping the peace, but also for taking it all in stride.  Walter Robinson, Ian Capstick and the other "twitts" whom worked the event also did a fantastic job.  Lastly, much thanking is needed to mayor Larry O'Brien.  At the end calling Clive Doucet a visionary and a leader of this community must have been tough to say, but your support is phenomenal.  When will you concede?

W.